Implied Probability Calculator
Turn any odds into the true win percentage they imply.
Enter odds to see the implied probability, the break-even win rate the price is asking you to believe. You can also enter a percentage to get the fair odds that match it.
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What is implied probability?
Implied probability is the win percentage baked into a betting price. A -200 favorite implies a 66.7% chance to win; a +150 underdog implies 40%. It is the break-even rate: bet below it long term and you lose, above it and you profit.
How to calculate implied probability
From decimal odds, implied probability = 1 / decimal. From positive American odds, it is 100 / (odds + 100). From negative American odds, it is odds / (odds + 100). The calculator handles every format instantly.
Implied vs. true probability
A book's implied probabilities include the vig, so they add up to more than 100%. Your job is to estimate the true probability and bet when you think it is higher than the price implies. Pair this with the no-vig calculator to see the fair number.
From probability to fair odds
Flip it around: fair decimal odds = 1 / your probability. If you think a team wins 60% of the time, fair odds are 1.67 (about -150). Anything better than that price is value.
Odds to implied probability chart
Implied probability is the win rate a price is pricing in, and it doubles as your break-even rate: you need to win at least this often to profit at that number before vig. Enter any odds above for the exact figure.
| American odds | Implied probability | Decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| -300 | 75.0% | 1.33 |
| -200 | 66.7% | 1.50 |
| -150 | 60.0% | 1.67 |
| -110 | 52.4% | 1.91 |
| +100 | 50.0% | 2.00 |
| +110 | 47.6% | 2.10 |
| +150 | 40.0% | 2.50 |
| +200 | 33.3% | 3.00 |
| +300 | 25.0% | 4.00 |
| +500 | 16.7% | 6.00 |
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate implied probability from odds?+
Use 1 / decimal odds, or 100 / (odds + 100) for positive American odds, or odds / (odds + 100) for negative American odds. The calculator does all three formats for you.
What is the implied probability of -110?+
-110 American odds imply about a 52.4% win probability, the standard break-even rate on a typical point spread.
What does implied probability tell me?+
It is the break-even win rate. If your own estimate of a team's chances is higher than the implied probability, the bet has positive expected value.
How do I turn a percentage into odds?+
Fair decimal odds equal 1 divided by the probability. Enter a percentage in the calculator and it returns the matching fair American and decimal odds.