- What is it? Converts betting odds into a percentage chance of an outcome.
- Why does it matter? Helps you spot value bets, make informed decisions, and develop strategies.
- How to calculate it? Use simple formulas:
- For positive odds (e.g., +200):
- For negative odds (e.g., -200):
For example, odds of -200 translate to a 67% implied probability. Keep in mind that traditional sportsbooks include a "vig" (their margin), inflating probabilities above 100%. Platforms like BettorEdge remove the vig, offering true market odds and better value. By mastering implied probabilities, you can identify mismatched odds, spot arbitrage opportunities, and improve your betting success.
Calculating Implied Probability
Odds to Probability Conversion
To convert American odds into implied probability, use these formulas:
- For positive odds (e.g., +150, +200): = 100 / (Odds + 100)
- For negative odds (e.g., –150, –200): = |Odds| / (|Odds| + 100)
For example, if the odds are -200: = 200 / (200 + 100) = 67%
This means there’s a 67% chance of winning based on those odds. However, traditional sportsbooks often include a "vig" (their built-in margin), which inflates these probabilities. As BettorEdge explains:
"Bettors need to win more than 52.4% of the time to break even due to the vig."
To save time, you can use tools or tables to handle these calculations.
Calculation Resources
Here’s a quick reference table for converting American odds:
American Odds | Implied Probability |
–300 | 75.0% |
–200 | 66.7% |
–150 | 60.0% |
+150 | 40.0% |
+200 | 33.3% |
+300 | 25.0% |
For more precise calculations, try these resources:
- Implied Probability calculators: Platforms like BettorEdge include tools that show true probabilities without the vig markup.
- Mobile apps: Many sports betting apps have built-in probability calculators, though keep in mind that traditional sportsbook odds often account for the vig.
Understanding implied probability helps you spot value bets. This is especially useful on betting exchanges, where:
"Betting Exchanges have over 40% likelihood of users being profitable compared to a 2% likelihood of a sportsbook user being profitable."
Using Implied Probability in Betting
Understanding Probability Percentages
Implied probability percentages, calculated from betting odds, help you assess whether market expectations align with your own analysis. For instance, odds of -200 translate to an implied probability of about 67%, suggesting a two-thirds chance of that outcome. By comparing these probabilities to your own evaluations, you can uncover potential betting opportunities.
Spotting Value Bets
Value betting involves finding situations where your estimated probability is higher than the implied probability from the odds. Here's how it works:
Your Assessment | Implied Probability | Value Bet? |
70% | 60% | Yes – Potential value |
60% | 65% | No – Odds overvalued |
75% | 75% | No – Fair odds |
To make accurate assessments, rely on factors like team or player performance stats, injury updates, head-to-head records, and even weather conditions. Additionally, keep in mind how the vig (or commission) can distort these probabilities, making it trickier to spot genuine value.
Understanding the Vig
The vig is the built-in commission sportsbooks add to their odds, which pushes the total implied probabilities above 100%. This is where betting exchanges can offer a major advantage. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, exchanges allow users to bet directly with each other. For example, BettorEdge’s peer-to-peer platform has processed over $100 million in market orders and more than 1 million trades. Without the vig, these platforms present bettors with true probabilities instead of inflated ones.
When working with implied probabilities, consider these key points:
- Whether the odds include a vig
- The actual break-even percentage needed to turn a profit
- Whether you’re betting against a sportsbook or another bettor
Understanding Implied Probability: How To Calculate (American Odds)
Expert Probability Techniques
Once you’ve mastered the basics of calculating implied probabilities, you can take your betting strategies to the next level with more advanced techniques. These methods can sharpen both your live betting and cross-market approaches.
Live Betting Analysis
Live betting demands quick thinking and the ability to adapt as the game unfolds. Platforms like BettorEdge offer tools such as the "Live orders" section, where you can see real-time odds from other bettors. Keep a close eye on how odds shift after major events like a scoring play, injury, or momentum change. Compare these updated implied probabilities with your pre-game research to spot potential value. Many platforms also provide analytics to help you evaluate your live betting performance.
Finding Arbitrage Bets
Arbitrage betting happens when odds from different platforms create a situation where the implied probabilities for all outcomes add up to less than 100%. Since BettorEdge functions as a peer-to-peer marketplace, its odds can sometimes differ significantly from those of traditional sportsbooks. By comparing odds across multiple platforms, you can uncover these discrepancies and lock in risk-free profits. Adding arbitrage bets to your strategy can help balance risks and improve your overall results.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Even experienced bettors can make errors when working with implied probabilities. One frequent mistake is overlooking the vigorish (or "juice") included in traditional sportsbook odds. Always double-check your calculations, ensuring the probabilities for all outcomes total 100%. Use analytics to track your betting performance and stay disciplined to avoid letting emotions cloud your judgment.
BettorEdge and Implied Probability
BettorEdge combines the principles of implied probability and value betting with tools designed to provide accurate odds and insights from a growing community.
No-Vig Betting Model
With BettorEdge, the usual "vig" or sportsbook fee is removed. This means you get true market odds, which can result in 5-10% higher returns per bet on average. By eliminating the typical 52.4% break-even point, users see a profitability rate of 40%, compared to just 2% with traditional sportsbooks.
But it's not just about fair odds - BettorEdge creates a space for collaboration among bettors.
Community Betting Features
The platform's social betting marketplace allows users to tap into collective knowledge and refine their probability-based strategies. Here's what you can do:
"BettorEdge is flat out the best Betting Platform out there... On BettorEdge, you're placing wagers with real people, which cuts out 'the house' completely. Which means you can finally make money betting on sports!" - John81433, App Store Reviewer
Performance Analytics
BettorEdge offers detailed analytics to help you fine-tune your betting strategies. With over $100 million in market orders and more than 1 million bets placed, the platform provides tools like:
- ROI tracking by sport and bet type.
- Win percentage analysis over weekly and monthly periods.
- Performance charts to optimize strategies.
- Historical betting data to identify odds trends.
Leaderboards showcase users with the highest ROI and win percentages, making it easy to learn from top bettors. With a community of over 30,000 active users, BettorEdge blends analytics and social features to help bettors improve their outcomes together.
Summary
Key Points Review
Implied probability is a powerful way to turn odds into percentages, helping you spot opportunities for better bets. This approach reveals potential value by showing the likelihood of outcomes in a more digestible format.
To break even, sportsbooks typically require bettors to maintain a win rate of over 52.4%. Meanwhile, no-vig platforms have handled more than $100 million in orders and facilitated 1 million bets. These peer-to-peer betting platforms offer a fresh approach, often leading to better odds and more value for bettors.
"These sites are created and monitored by math geniuses to systemically extort money from your pocket even if you're the sharpest of bettors." - John81433, BettorEdge User
These points emphasize the importance of understanding implied probability and the benefits of exploring alternative betting platforms.
Next Steps
To improve your betting strategy, consider these practical steps:
- Use tracking tools to keep an eye on your ROI and win rates.
- Engage with betting communities to exchange tips and learn from seasoned bettors who excel at finding value.
- Check out no-vig platforms for major leagues like the NFL, NBA, AF1, and MLB, which often provide better odds and increase your chances of success.